November 2024 Market Update: Fertiliser & Freight

This update distils insights from six key articles posted by Waypoint’s team into a concise overview of developments in both fertiliser and freight markets, and their implications for December and the start of 2025.

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1. Ocean Freight: Adjustments and Stability Across Major Routes

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Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB)

West Coast routes saw stable rates with improving space availability, while East and Gulf Coast lanes remained fully utilised ahead of a General Rate Increase (GRI). These shifts occurred amidst ILA negotiations and potential tariff actions.

Read more here: Weekly Supply Chain Update: 24 and Weekly Supply Chain Update: 21

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Far East Westbound (FEWB)

Capacity tightened due to blank sailings, leading to deferred bookings and rate increases. The SCFI dipped slightly before rising in anticipation of December’s GRI, while equipment shortages at Chinese ports remained manageable.

Read more here: Weekly Supply Chain Update: 23

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Transatlantic Westbound (TAWB)

Strong demand persisted across North and South Europe. Overbooked sailings in the Western Mediterranean and blank sailings into December kept supply tight, stabilising rates across the region.

Read more here: Weekly Supply Chain Update: 24 and Weekly Supply Chain Update: 22

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2. Geopolitical Pressures: Tariffs and Trade Routes

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Proposed tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China spurred inventory build-ups, adding strain to supply chains. Red Sea tensions and the Panama Canal drought further increased costs and transit times. Meanwhile, China’s dominance in shipbuilding prompted international countermeasures, including tariffs and strategic alliances.

Read more here: China’s Fertiliser Market Update and Weekly Supply Chain Update: 22

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3. Fertiliser Markets: Rising Costs and Export Restrictions

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China’s phosphate export halt, effective 1st December, tightened global supply. DAP prices firmed at USD 620-630/MT FOB China, while MKP reached USD 1,180-1,240/MT FOB China, reflecting strong demand in Europe, South Asia, and South America.

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Regional Impacts

The export restrictions drove North African producers to significantly raise TMAP prices, a trend we expect to continue until, at the very least, Chinese New Year, given the lack of stability in recent weeks. Sulphur costs climbed to USD 204/MT CFR China, adding pressure to already constrained markets. Morocco, however, saw a temporary USD 10/MT dip in DAP prices, though supply constraints are expected to firm these rates.

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Production Dynamics

China prioritised local agricultural needs, controlling Urea exports (priced locally at USD 280/MT) and winter stocks. Ammonia, previously used domestically for Urea, shifted towards export markets, priced at USD 405-410/MT FOB China.

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Emerging Trends

Latin America maintained steady MAP prices (USD 635/MT CFR), while alternative fertilisers like SSP and NP blends gained traction. Europe’s demand for speciality fertilisers like Kieserite also grew, diversifying global market patterns.

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Read more here: Phosphate Market Update and China’s Fertiliser Market Update

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4. Bulk Freight: Recovery Amid Persistent Pressures

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The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) saw modest gains, supported by capesize shipments, though year-on-year performance lagged. Panamax markets struggled, particularly for grain shipments in the North Atlantic. Strategic investments, such as Chipolbrok’s multipurpose vessel expansion, reflect confidence in managing fluctuating demand.

Read more here: Weekly Supply Chain Update: 23 and Weekly Supply Chain Update: 21

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5. Takeaways

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November demonstrated the fine balance between stability and disruption in global trade. Freight rates held steady through capacity adjustments and GRIs, while geopolitical factors introduced complexity. Fertiliser markets grappled with rising input costs and export constraints, emphasising the importance of diversified sourcing strategies.

Waypoint’s insights aim to help buyers navigate these challenges. As December progresses, flexibility in procurement and planning for seasonal disruptions, including Chinese New Year, will be critical for a strong start to 2025.