Waypoint Supplier Updates - August 2024

In recent updates from our suppliers, we’ve observed significant trends and changes that could impact our market strategy moving forward. Here’s a concise overview:

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Global Supply Tightness in TSP

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• The supply of Triple Superphosphate (TSP) remains very tight globally. This is primarily due to the requirement for high-grade rock phosphate in TSP production. Notably, China faces limited access to this crucial resource.

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Pricing Trends

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• Prilled Urea prices are around $360 this week, with expectations of a further drop to $350-$355 next week. This reduction is anticipated as Egyptian market activity slows down during European holidays.

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China Market Updates

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• MCP/MDCP Stability: Prices have remained stable despite weak domestic demand and high export freight rates. The volatility of the USD has led Chinese suppliers to adjust prices to offset currency fluctuations. Stability is expected until raw material costs decrease.
• Sulphuric Acid: Prices in Yunnan are steady, but there are rumours of potential increases due to maintenance-related supply shortages. Conflicting reports suggest new production could start by late August or September. We will continue to monitor this closely.
• Freight Rates: Shipping costs to Latin America are decreasing, while rates to the Middle East and Europe are projected to rise in early August.

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Yellow Phosphorus and Phosphate Ores

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• The cost of yellow phosphorus is influenced by lower electricity prices during Sichuan’s rainy season, boosting phosphate production capacity. We expect phosphate ore prices to bottom out by mid-August, with a rise anticipated from mid-September due to fertiliser reserves for autumn and winter and the onset of the dry season.